‘A Tragedy For Continuity’: Cooperation In The Arctic In Deep Crisis In The Midst Of The Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has resulted in Russia being frozen out of the Arctic Council– has put a final nail in the coffin of peaceful operation in the Arctic region. 

Having the status as the premium forum of cooperation in the Arctic region, the Arctic Council’s temporary loss of Russia has made cooperation harder than usual from the Arctics regional perspective, said Mikkel Runge Olesen, Senior Researcher on Foreign policy and diplomacy with the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS). 

Olesen said this temporary freeze on Russia in the Arctic Council has very little to do with the Arctic, adding that this approach is done from a geopolitical Western perspective. 

How the Danish government would view this, Olesen said: “It was seen as a necessary thing to do, because of having to retaliate across the board against Russia. Then cooperation in the act becomes sort of a collateral damage.”

Russia is in charge of half of the Arctic region, without Russia entangled in all these constructive Arctic developments, as the Arctic region will be without a common approach to many important issues.

However, the change in power in the Arctic puts small countries like Denmark under pressure.

“A small stage generally speaking, isn't very well suited for conflict between great powers,” Olesen said. 

A Peaceful Collaboration in the Past

Before the Ukraine crisis swelled up in Europe, things were going positively in the Arctic, where the region was committed to be of low tension.

Then from 2014 to 2021, a gradual change of pace of the Arctic development has taken place on behalf of the great powers. 

“For more than 25 years, cooperation in the Arctic was seen as a lesson from which the world could all learn peaceful cooperation that incorporated Russia into a web of very successful agreement on many important civil issues. But now that has the whole collapse,” said Martin Breum, a Copenhagen-based Arctic journalist and writer. 

Canada and the Kingdom of Denmark have just ended a 50-year whisky war over Hans Island, located in the Lincoln Sea. Because of how remotely located the island is and lack of activities in the region, the dispute has been an irritant for both countries throughout this overly long diplomatic process. 

Breum said it’s worth noting that territorial disputes can entice and occupy the minds even between very friendly countries.

“We should always be cognizant of the fact that we ourselves are also subject to very emotional approaches when it comes to territory and borders,” he said.

The Arctic has been a demanding region in history, operating under extensive national and international legal frameworks– that cooperation is important for all involved because no country can solve its own challenges without cooperating with others in the Arctic region. 

After signing the deal with Denmark in June, Canada has re-established its role in the Arctic region as providing high quality science, both natural and social science, to the council with the goal of empowering Northern communities while protecting the fragile Arctic environment.

“We enjoy a rich history of excellent relations built on people-to-people ties and shared values,” a spokesperson for the Canadian foreign minister wrote in an email.

‘A Frozen Arctic from a Danish View’

Whereas Denmark’s Arctic power that must present in the Arctic state is an important factor for Denmark international spending. 

“Denmark would not have a seat on the Arctic Council, if it wasn't for Greenland, and to a lesser extent, the Faroe Islands– which at the same time gives Denmark influence in NATO,” Olesen said.

Denmark in the Arctic, and the Kingdom of Denmark in the Arctic is also “a very difficult balance” seeking between the interests of the three parts of development, he said. 

With the cooperation with Russia in the Arctic on pause, and with no specific deadline. It may continue for many years until at least a government shift in Russia has taken place, and  the war in Ukraine is solved in a manner that will satisfy the Ukrainians.

Olesen predicted the US government may step forward and take Russia’s role in the Arctic,  on a faint silver line, “there's It's a very big perspective for active cooperation in the coming years with the Arctic Council frozen.”